Saturday, December 27, 2008

Thanks for Comments and Apologies for Absence

First, a big thanks to the two comments I received, and my apologies for not replying to them earlier. Obviously, keeping up a blog while working full-time on a "real" job is harder than it looks! Another reason for my absence the past few months is that I have striven to avoid posting information on stallions or racehorses that have been posted in the major publications or blogs elsewhere. I want to be try to be unique, yet obviously there has to be a bit of information available elsewhere on the thoroughbred in question in order to do the research. After a major stakes win, I waited until the dust settled from the other publications before considering a new posting. With the Breeder's Cup generating information everywhere, that proved to be difficult. And, as one comment pointed out, this blog requires quite a bit of research to get the job done. Plus, I'm anal about accuracy of research. (My first master's degree was in library science, after all.) Plus, of course, there's that little thing called a "full-time job" and "life" getting in the way! Hopefully, I can devote a bit of time again to this blog.

In the meantime, if any of you would like to see a posting devoted to a specific thoroughbred, please let me know! And thanks for reading!

Early Christmas Presents

Kudos to both The Blood-Horse and competitor Thoroughbred Times for continuing to issue their stallion directories, the Stallion Register and the Stallion Directory, respectively, in print format to their subscribers. Both arrive at about the same time and both are treated by me as early Christmas presents. While some may question the wisdom of a printed directory that must be kept up to date constantly online, it remains a simple pleasure to thumb through these massive volumes. I work in technology, and I obviously use technology while posting this blog. However, my first profession of being a librarian obviously implies a certain love of books as well. You miss the serendipity of stumbling across a previously unknown sire while thumbing through these books. Congratulations to both publishers for keeping up this tradition, and let's hope the tradition continues, despite the financial pressures that are likely present to do otherwise.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

City Zip: The Less-Famous Older Brother of Ghostzapper

When Run Away and Hide won the gr. II Saratoga Special Stakes on August 14, 2008, he was following in the hoof prints of his sire, City Zip, who accomplished the same task eight years previously. Unlike his sire, however, Run Away and Hide skipped the preceding gr. II Sanford Stakes at Saratoga, and also skipped the crown jewel for juveniles at Saratoga, the gr. I Hopeful Stakes. Not so his sire. In 2000, City Zip--whose pedigree from Tesiopower is reproduced at the end of this article--completed a rare triple of Saratoga's threesome of prestigious stakes races for two-year-olds, capturing the Sanford, Saratoga Special, and dead-heating with Yonaguska in the Hopeful (beating Macho Uno by a neck in the process). The dead heat in the Hopeful, which was hurriedly started that year five minutes before the scheduled post time to avoid one of those familiar impending Saratoga summer storms, was unprecedented.1 Writers were quick to pounce on the disparity of the dual winners of the Hopeful: Yonaguska was a $1,950,000 graduate of Fasig-Tipton Calder’s select two-year-old in training sale, while City Zip was purchased for a mere $9,500 as a yearling at the January Keeneland sale. More impressively, City Zip’s Saratoga juvenile triple was historical, being accomplished previously only by the great filly Regret in 1914, Campfire in 1916, and Dehere in 1993, who later captured the Eclipse Award for champion two-year-old male. Unfortunately for City Zip, the history-making comparisons ended there. If anything, City Zip has an interesting history that mixes bloodlines and circumstance, which while hardly unique in thoroughbred racing and pedigrees, is what makes this sport so fascinating.

After capturing the three stakes at Saratoga, City Zip next finished second by a nose to Burning Roma in his first route test at one mile in the gr. I Futurity at Belmont, but then finished seventh to A P Valentine in the gr. I Champagne Stakes over 8 1/2 furlongs at the same track, and then seventh again in the gr. I Breeder's Cup Juvenile, also at 8 1/2 furlongs, at Churchill Downs to old rival Macho Uno--who went on to capture the year's Eclipse Award for champion two-year-old male. If you are already detecting a trend, it is an all-too-familiar one in thoroughbred racing: the speedy juvenile hitting the proverbial brick wall when introduced to routes. City Zip never won a race beyond seven furlongs in his racing lifetime.

Little wonder, as his sire Carson City was a product of the most prominent influence of tail-male speed in the United States, being sired by Mr. Prospector who, of course, was sired by Raise a Native. Carson City won the gr. II Sapling Stakes as a two-year old and the gr. II Fall Highweight Handicap and gr. III Boojum Handicap at age three, every single one of which was run at six furlongs. He had a good stud carrer, siring grade one winner Flying Chevron (who did win at one mile and over), the filly Carson Hollow, a winner of the gr. I Prioress Stakes (run at 6 furlongs), this year's gr. II Vanderbilt Handicap winner Abraaj, Pollard's Vision (another one able to get a route, as he won the 2004 gr. II Illinois Derby over 9 furlongs), and many others. He has gained almost as much notoriety as a broodmare sire, most notably of the ill-fated Barbaro and Stormello. Carson City died at age 17 in late 2004 at Overbrook Farm after standing there his entire career. When he died, the Thoroughbred Times reported he had sired 72 stakes winners from 11 crops of racing age.2 Acknowledging that Steven Roman's dosage methodology does not have universal acclaim, it must nevertheless be pointed out that Dr. Roman thought enough of Carson City's influence to grant him chef-de-race status in 2007.

At age three City Zip's trainer, Linda Rice, did what every trainer of a three-year-old who showed promise his juvenile year would do: point to the classics. He started on a traditional route, in the gr. I Fountain of Youth Stakes at 1 1/16 miles, where he finished a respectable third to Songandaprayer--not bad considering he went into the race on a tender foot. His next race was the gr. I Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles, where he finished ninth to Monarchos, who would later go on to win the gr. I Kentucky Derby. His connections wisely returned him to a sprinting schedule, and during the rest of his three-year-old year his triumphs included the gr. III six-furlong Jersey Shore Breeder’s Cup Stakes at Monmouth over Songandaprayer, and most notably the gr. II Amsterdam Stakes (also six furlongs) back at his favorite track, Saratoga, where he defeated fellow three-year-old Speightstown--who later went on at age 6 to capture the gr. I Breeder’s Cup Sprint in 2004 and won the Eclipse Award for best sprinter that year. His career concluded with two straight defeats at one mile: a third to Forbidden Apple in the gr. II Kelso Handicap, and a ninth place finish in the gr. I Breeder’s Cup Mile on the turf to Val Royal. His connections opted to bypass the Breeder's Cup Sprint that year, won by Squirtle Squirt, to whom City Zip finished third in the gr. I King’s Bishops Stakes earlier at Saratoga.

City Zip was retired in 2001 to stand stud beginning in 2002 at Contemporary Stallions in New York for a fee of $7,500. His final racing tally was 23 starts, 9 wins, 5 places, and 4 shows, earning just over $818,000. He stayed at Contemporary for three years until he was moved in 2005 to William S. Farish’s Lane’s End Farm to stand for $15,000. While this is conjecture on my part, the reason for the move and the increase in stud fee was obvious: in 2004, City Zip’s much more famous half-brother, Ghostzapper, won the gr. I Breeder’s Cup Classic on October 30, 2004 at Lone Star Park, setting a track record time of 1:59.02 for the mile and a quarter in the process. Ghostzapper later went on, of course, to be named the 2004 Horse of the Year. In September 2005, it was announced that Ghostzapper he would stand his first season at stud in 2006 at Adena Springs Kentucky for an eye-popping fee of $200,000--the highest in history since Devil's Bag commanded that fee in 1985. (The fee was later reduced to $150,000 for his 2007 season.) Between the success of City Zip and Ghostzapper, it was little wonder that the dam of both, Baby Zip, was named Broodmare of the Year.

Which brings us to City Zip's female side of the family. Baby Zip's dam, Thirty Zip, produced Turkish stakes winner Win River Win, but little else of note. She was a warrior as a racehorse, however, starting 44 times and earning just over a half-million dollars in the process. Baby Zip's grand dam, Sailaway, produced the filly Eileen's Moment, who had an undistinguished racing career but went on to become the dam of gr. I Kentucky Derby winner Lil E Tee and was accorded Reine de Course status by Ellen Parker. (At the time of this writing, Parker's site is not listing the Reines.) Baby Zip's male ancestors include sire Relaunch, who won the gr. III Del Mar Derby at nine furlongs, and Relaunch's sire In Reality, who could get a distance of ground himself (he won the gr. I Florida Derby at nine furlongs), but gained greater notoriety as a miler, winning both the seven furlong gr. I Carter Handicap and the gr. I Metropolitan Mile. He proved to be an influence on both speed as well as classic horses and was placed in the Brilliant-Classic chef-de-race category by Steven Roman.

Speaking of In Reality, Carson City proved to be a good match for In Reality-line mares, as gr. I winner City Band was a result of that breeding, as was 2006 gr. II Saratoga Stakes winner Chace City. The ever-predictable inbreeding to Northern Dancer, however, has proven more fruitful, producing Dubai Golden Shaheen winner State City, the previously mentioned Pollard's Vision, and this year's gr. III Miss Preakness Stakes winner Palanka City. Turn-To male-line mares have also nicked well with Carson City, producing this year's gr. II Vanderbilt winner Abraaj, 2001 Vanderbilt winner Five Star Day, and the 1996 gr. II Boojum Handicap winner Lord Carson.

City Zip has so far sired nice, if not yet exceptional (with the possible exception of Bustin Stones), offspring. In his first crop, his leading money earner was Little Miss Zip, who won Finger Lakes’ Lady’s Finger Stakes in 2005 and placed in various other ungraded stakes. His leading second-crop offspring was With a City, who at age 3 won the gr. II Lane’s End Stakes at Turfway Park at odds of over 48 to 1 before finishing last in the gr. II Arkansas Derby. Shortly afterwards he was euthanized after suffering from an unknown illness. His third crop brought Tishmeister (foaled 2004), who captured Saratoga’s Statue of Liberty Stakes in 2007. That same year, City Zip sired Bustin Stones, who is his greatest success so far, winning this year’s gr. I Carter Handicap and gr. II General George Handicap, and who has yet to be defeated in six starts. At the time of this writing (September 21, 2008) his racing future is uncertain, with his next start possibly the gr. I Vosburgh Handicap. He was scratched from the Vanderbilt Handicap at Saratoga with a bruised foot (according to the September 12, 2008 issue of the Thoroughbred Daily News), which one hopes will not be a sign of City Zip offspring, as our subject himself was prone to foot issues. His long-range plans, however, are set: in the same issue of TDN, it was announced Bustin Stones will begin standing at stud next year at Waldorf Farm in New York for $6,500. City Zip’s latest crop of racing age, from 2006, has produced the aforementioned Run Away and Hide, who also captured the gr. III Kentucky Stakes, and the filly Partner’s Star, who won the Anna M. Fisher Debutante Stakes at Ellis Park.

Looking back at City Zip's stud career in progeny earnings, his $1,064,275 in offspring earnings was good enough to rank a respectable third on the 2005 Leading First-Crop Sires list, behind only Tiznow and El Corredor. In 2006, he ranked sixth among 2006 Leading Second-Crop Sires, while in 2007 he was back in the top 5, ranking fifth among 2007 Leading Third-Crop Sires. That year was also the first time he would crack the list of Leading Sires overall, where he ranked 69th. He ranked even higher among sires of 2007 when considering the ranking by Average Earnings Index, where he finished 44th with a respectable AEI of 1.81. Plus, he is among the elite group that betters the produce of his mares, as his Comparable Index for that year was 1.44, which put him among the 42 (of 75 sires ranked) whose AEI was higher than the Comparable Index. At the time of this writing (September 21, 2008), he ranks 47th on the current Leading Sires listing for 2008. His APEX rating is similarly respectable, and as of mid-year 2008 his ABC Index stands at 1.99--enough to rank him 41st. (Bill Oppenheim released his mid-year APEX ratings in the August 13, 2008 edition of the Thoroughbred Daily News, which contains a link to a downloadable spreadsheet.) For comparison, all fellow 2007 Leading Third-Crop Sires who ranked above him in earnings rank below him in the ABC Index: Broken Vow is currently at 1.54, Tiznow is 1.45, Trippi is 1.66, and El Corredor is 1.43.

One thing he is virtually guaranteed to do is sire speed horses. With 248 foals of racing age so far, the average winning distance of his progeny is but 6.4 furlongs according to his Equineline statistics. His offspring are eerily similar to his own limits, as well: the same statistical page indicates the average maximum winning distance is 6.66 furlongs. Are his offspring going to have the same 7 furlong barrier? It is likely. So far, among his graded stakes offspring only With a City has won around two turns, as the Lane's End Stakes is nine furlongs. Just as this article was being completed, the September 20, 2008 winner of the non-graded Sunday Silence Stakes at Louisiana Downs was won by gelded two-year-old City Style (out of Brattothecore), which was contested over 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Perhaps, with the proper influence of distance on the distaff side and good training, City Zip may yet produce a few more runners who can go a distance.

Currently standing at Lane's End Farm for $15,000, it is little surprise that City Zip is featured in most trade publication advertisements from Lane's End as a half-brother to his more famous sibling Ghostzapper, whose yearlings are averaging over $300,000 (according to the September 10, 2008 Thoroughbred Daily News). Nevertheless, City Zip has so far proven that the older sibling is not giving up easily. He has become a respectable sire in his own right, and offers the breeder on a more modest budget than breeding to Ghostzapper permits a better chance to bring back the stud fee in purses.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 As reported in the Thoroughbred Times, available only to subscribers.
2Subscribers to the Thoroughbred Times can access the story here.

TesioPower Pedigree for City Zip
City Zip (1998) - M - 23-b
by Carson City out of Baby Zip by Relaunch to 6 generations
Carson City
1987
Mr Prospector
1970
Raise A Native
1961
Native Dancer
1950
Polynesian
1942
Unbreakable
Black Polly
1935 - 4-i
1936 - 14-a
Geisha
1943
Discovery
Miyako
1931 - 23-b
1935 - 5-f
Raise You
1946
Case Ace
1934
Teddy
Sweetheart
1913 - 2-n
1920 - 1-k
Lady Glory
1934
American Flag
Beloved
1922 - 7
1927 - 8-f
Gold Digger
1962
Nashua
1952
Nasrullah
1940
Nearco
Mumtaz Begum
1935 - 4-r
1932 - 9-c
Segula
1942
Johnstown
Sekhmet
1936 - 17-b
1929 - 3-m
Sequence
1946
Count Fleet
1940
Reigh Count
Quickly
1925 - 2-d
1930 - 6
Miss Dogwood
1939
Bull Dog
Myrtlewood
1927 - 16-a
1932 - 13-c
Blushing Promise
1982
Blushing Groom
1974
Red God
1954
Nasrullah
1940
Nearco
Mumtaz Begum
1935 - 4-r
1932 - 9-c
Spring Run
1948
Menow
Boola Brook
1935 - 8-g
1937 - 8-c
Runaway Bride
1962
Wild Risk
1940
Rialto
Wild Violet
1923 - 12
1935 - 3-f
Aimee
1957
Tudor Minstrel
Emali
1944 - 9-c
1945 - 22-d
Summertime Promise
1972
Nijinsky II
1967
Northern Dancer
1961
Nearctic
Natalma
1954 - 14-c
1957 - 2-d
Flaming Page
1959
Bull Page
Flaring Top
1947 - 4-m
1947 - 8-f
Prides Promise
1966
Crozier
1958
My Babu
Miss Olympia
1945 - 1-w
1952 - 23-b
Hillbrook
1957
I Will
Johann
1944 - 1-s
1950 - 4-r
Baby Zip
1991
Relaunch
1976
In Reality
1964
Intentionally
1956
Intent
1948
War Relic
Liz F
1938 - 1-o
1933 - 8-c
My Recipe
1947
Discovery
Perlette
1931 - 23-b
1934 - 5-j
My Dear Girl
1957
Rough 'n Tumble
1948
Free For All
Roused
1942 - 1-l
1943 - 1-o
Iltis
1947
War Relic
We Hail
1938 - 1-o
1942 - 21-a
Foggy Note
1965
The Axe II
1958
Mahmoud
1933
Blenheim
Mah Mahal
1927 - 1-e
1928 - 9-c
Blackball
1950
Shut Out
Big Event
1939 - 16-g
1938 - 1-x
Silver Song
1957
Royal Note
1952
Spy Song
Penroyal
1943 - 2-o
1935 - 12
Beadah
1953
Djeddah
Beauty Spot
1945 - 13-c
1948 - 3-o
Thirty Zip
1983
Tri Jet
1969
Jester
1955
Tom Fool
1949
Menow
Gaga
1935 - 8-g
1942 - 3-j
Golden Apple
1945
Eight Thirty
Thorn Apple
1936 - 11-b
1937 - 23-b
Haze
1953
Olympia
1946
Heliopolis
Miss Dolphin
1936 - 8-g
1934 - 4-p
Blue Castle
1938
Blenheim
Blue Dust
1927 - 1-e
1929 - 20-c
Sailaway
1976
Hawaii
1964
Utrillo II
1958
Toulouse Lautrec
Urbinella
1950 - 6-d
1953 - 20-a
Ethane
1947
Mehrali
Ethyl
1939 - 3-e
1936 - 1-l
Quick Wit
1956
Shannon II
1941
Midstream
Idle Words
1933 - 7-f
1932 - 8-g
Witty
1946
Rhodes Scholar
Native Gal
1933 - 1-n
1939 - 23-b

Dosage Profile: 21-11-11-1-0 (44) DI=5.77 CD=1.18
TesioPower

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Mauralakana: 2008 Beverly D. Stakes Winner

The Arlington Million tends to attract plenty of attention both nationally and internationally. And why not? The race has been captured by numerous non-American-based thoroughbreds over the years, and this year's victory of Spirit One was no exception. Arlington Park happens to be this writer's hometown track, and their International Festival of Racing day features three Grade 1 events. Alan Porter did an analysis of Arlington Million (gr. IT) winner Spirit One on the Blood-Horse site and Avalyn Hunter covered Secretariat Stakes (gr. IT) winner Winchester, also on the Blood-Horse site. Missing from the usual overview was detailed coverage of the winner of the third Grade I race of the day, the Beverly D. Stakes (gr. IT), contested for 3-year-old and up fillies and mares. This year's victory went to Mauralakana, and if you missed it YouTube has a video of her first Grade I win here. (All English language versions were no longer available shortly after this was posted; you will have to live with this version, in French!)

The Beverly D. winner is by Muhtathir (GB), out of Jimkana, by Double Bed. (See TesioPower-generated pedigree following this entry.) Muhtathir during his career was nothing if not cosmopolitan. Winner of the Prix du Haras de Fresnay-Le-Buffard Jacques Le Marois (Group 1, in 2000) in France, the Premio Vittori di Capua (Group 1, in 1999) and Premio Emilio Turati (Group 2, in 2000) in Italy (the former in record time), and the Tripleprint Celebration Mile (Group 2) and Hungerford Stakes (Group 3) in England, both in 1998, such success in these and other races led him to be named champion older male in England, the United Arab Emirates, and Italy (twice). Currently standing at Le Haras du Mezeray for 10,000 Euros, Mauralakana represents her sire's second major North American winner, the first one being Doctor Dino, winner of the 2007 edition of the Man O' War Stakes (gr. IT). Doctor Dino is still racing at age six, in fact, and just this past weekend finished second in the Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville over one and 9/16 miles to Getaway on August 31, 2008. Other stakes winners sired by Muhtathir include Group 1 winner Satwa Queen and Group 3 winner Headache.

Muhtathir's sire, the Eclipse Stakes (Group 1-Eng) and Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) winner Elmaamul, was not an especially prolific sire, producing (apart from Muhtathir, of course) gr. I Hollywood Derby, Eddie Read Handicap, and Charlie Whittingham Derby winner Sweet Return among a few others. Elmaamul's sire Diesis produced numerous group winners, including two-time Eclipse Stakes (gr. I Eng) winner Halling and Epsom Oaks (gr. 1 Eng) and Irish Oaks (Group 1) winner Ramruna. An excellent article on the Sharpen Up male line, which Muhtathir is a product of, is covered in Avalyn Hunter's Mahubah's Corner in the September 19, 2007 (p. 23) issue of Bloodhorse NOW, formerly produced in PDF format and which the Blood-Horse website has made inexplicably impossible to find since they have stopped producing it in the PDF format. After a bit of digging around and using my librarian searching skills, I finally found it here.

NASCAR used to have the adage "win on Sunday, sell on Monday," reflecting the effect that its stock car manufacturers had in the salesrooms of America after a win at the track. Though not quite the same, the effect is often similar in thoroughbred sales, as Muhtathir had eight yearlings cataloged in the Deauville August Yearling Sale on August 15 through August 18. The timing could not have been better. All eight sold, and as Bill Oppenheim reported in the August 20, 2008 Thoroughbred Daily News on page 9 (available to subscribers in the archives), all eight sold for an average of 135,875 euros, including a 570,000 euro filly, fifth highest price in the sale. (Hip number 148, out of Princess d'Orange.)

Looking the female side, Jimkana has produced Mauralakana's half-sister Petit Calva, who placed second in the Group 3 Prix de la Grotte in France, and won the listed stakes Prix de la Calonne and Criterium du Bequet. More noteworthy, Jimkana is the full-sister to Jim and Tonic, a gelding who like her was by Double Bed, out of Jimka, by Jim French. Jim and Tonic's wins included the Group 1 Dubai Duty Free at Nad Al Sheba at age 7 in 2001, and earlier the Hong Kong Cup, Hong Kong Mile, and Queen Elizabeth II Cup (all gr. I Jap) at Sha Tin in Japan. His winning of numerous Group 3 races in France earned him high weight older horse twice on the French Handicap at 9 1/2 to 11 furlongs, and high weight older horse on the same handicap at 7 to 9 1/2 furlongs at age 7.

In fact, Jimka, who won 7 races in France out of a jaw-dropping 76 starts, produced no fewer than six offspring by Double Bed, including Gigawatt, who produced Anabaa Republic, third in two Group 3 races in France. Double Bed, winner of the Group 2 Prix de la Cote Normande in France and second in the Group 1 Champion Stakes in England, was out of Claire's Slipper, who won the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh in 1977.

Jimka's dam was the unraced Kastueuse, who also produced Tartueuse, who in turn produced Tolle Legge, dam of French Polo, winner of the listed Derby de l'Quest at Nantes in 2003. Kastueuse's dam, Vertueuse, was out of Tenebreuse, who produced in 1963 Taneb, winner of the Group 1 Gran Prix de Saint-Cloud in 1967.

With all of the black type in the 5-year-old Mauralakana's family, it is little wonder that Australian owner Robert Scarborough had plans to retire her to the breeding shed in Australia right after the race. Those plans are now on hold, since the victory in the Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" Beverly D. qualifies her for the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (gr. IT-as if you needed to know). Scarborough purchased his stakes winner as hip number 495 for $900,000 at the 2007 Keeneland November Breeding Stock sale, and she has done little wrong in 2008, winning the mile and 3/8 Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay Handicap and Grade 2 New York Handicap at a mile and a quarter, both at Belmont and both on the turf. The mile and 3/16 Beverly D. represented a shortened distance from those two, but as the above pedigree overview can attest, she was bred for grass and for distance. Her dosage profile of 2-0-7-1-0 is another indicator of her being bred for distance. Inbred 5m X 4m to Northern Dancer through five generations, her six-cross pedigree shown her also shows she is inbred Tudor Minstrel through her dam, as well as to Nasrullah (6m x 6m) and Native Dancer (6m x 6f).

What does her future hold? Diesis-line mares have displayed quite a bit of affinity for Northern Dancer-line stallions, which of course is going to produce the ever-familiar inbreeding to that line. Nevertheless, this cross has produced 2001 gr. IT United Nations Handicap winner Senure, and more recently the 2006 Group I Irish Derby and 2007 Group I Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Dylan Thomas, and 2006 Group 1 St. Leger stakes winner Sixties Icon, who this year recently won the Group 3 Glorious Stakes. Using the G1 Goldmine program, the Ventura GeoScore for Northern Dancer over Sharpen Up (the sire of Diesis) is positive: 1.28 in the United States. (1.00 is the baseline; over 1.00 means the cross did better than expected.) Interestingly, using Diesis specifically on the bottom under Northern Dancer yields a lower 0.90 in the United States, though a 1.15 overall. It should also be noted, however, that the Diesis line has produced very few graded stakes winners in the U.S. to begin with (17 grade I winners, by G1 Goldmine's count).

Breeders wanting to shy away from having Northern Dancer crosses --for whatever reason--will have to look hard. One option is breeding to Raise a Native-line sires, though obviously Native Dancer blood will still be there. One such results is 2000 Group I Irish One Thousand Guineas and Gr. I Coronation Stakes winner Crimplene. Another possibility is mating to Hail to Reason-line sires, under whom this cross has produced 2007 Gr. 1 St. Leger Stakes winner Lucarno, and 2003 Canadian Gr. 2 Sky Classic Handicap winner Bowman Mill, who also placed in that year’s Grade I Hollywood Turf Cup. Again taking into account the relatively low number of Diesis-line offspring in this country, the Ventura GeoScore for this particular cross is a striking 2.09 in the United States, 1.51 overall. When broadening things out to look for the Hail to Reason sire line cross over a Sharpen Up sire line mare, the tally includes Prince Arch, winner of the 2005 gr 1T Gulfsteam Park Breeders' Cup Handicap, and 2003 gr. I Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Action This Day, who were both descendents of Kris S. on the male side, as well as gr. I Japanese winner Neo Universe, who captured the Tokyo Yushun Derby and Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) in 2003, who was by Sunday Silence.

Regardless of the prospective sires she mates with, Maurlankana promises to be a very good broodmare if all goes well.

TesioPower Pedigree for Mauralakana
Mauralakana (2003) - F - 1-l
by Muhtahir out of Jimkana by Double Bed to 6 generations

Muhtahir
1995
Elmaamul
1987
Diesis
1980
Sharpen Up
1969
Atan
1961
Native Dancer
Mixed Marriage
1950 - 5-f
1952 - 2-f
Rocchetta
1961
Rockefella
Chambiges
1941 - 7-a
1949 - 5-i
Doubly Sure
1971
Reliance
1962
Tantieme
Relance
1947 - 20-a
1952 - 16-h
Soft Angels
1963
Crepello
Sweet Angel
1954 - 16-d
1955 - 2-o
Modena
1983
Roberto
1969
Hail To Reason
1958
Turn-To
Nothirdchance
1951 - 1-w
1948 - 4-n
Bramalea
1959
Nashua
Rarelea
1952 - 3-m
1949 - 12-c
Mofida
1974
Right Tack
1966
Hard Tack
Polly Macaw
1955 - 19-c
1959 - 10-a
Wold Lass
1960
Vilmorin
Cheb
1943 - 7-d
1948 - 9-e
Majmu
1988
Al Nasr
1978
Lyphard
1969
Northern Dancer
1961
Nearctic
Natalma
1954 - 14-c
1957 - 2-d
Goofed
1960
Court Martial
Barra II
1942 - 1-p
1950 - 17-b
Caretta
1973
Caro
1967
Fortino II
Chambord
1959 - 4-r
1955 - 3-o
Klainia
1960
Klairon
Kalitka
1952 - 1-w
1954 - 4-r
Affirmative Fable
1981
Affirmed
1975
Exclusive Native
1965
Raise A Native
Exclusive
1961 - 8-f
1953 - 10-a
Won't Tell You
1962
Crafty Admiral
Scarlet Ribbon
1948 - 8-c
1957 - 23-b
Fairway Fable
1971
Never Bend
1960
Nasrullah
Lalun
1940 - 9-c
1952 - 19-b
Fairway Fun
1962
Prince John
Fast Line
1953 - 14-f
1958 - 4-m
Jimkana
1992
Double Bed
1983
Be My Guest
1974
Northern Dancer
1961
Nearctic
1954
Nearco
Lady Angela
1935 - 4-r
1944 - 14-c
Natalma
1957
Native Dancer
Almahmoud
1950 - 5-f
1947 - 2-d
What A Treat
1962
Tudor Minstrel
1944
Owen Tudor
Sansonnet
1938 - 10-b
1933 - 9-c
Rare Treat
1952
Stymie
Rare Perfume
1941 - 1-h
1947 - 8-c
Claire's Slipper
1974
Welsh Saint
1966
St Paddy
1957
Aureole
Edie Kelly
1950 - 2-f
1950 - 14-c
Welsh Way
1954
Abernant
Winning Ways
1946 - 9-c
1945 - 9-h
Semislipper
1967
Seminole II
1959
Nasrullah
Banish
1940 - 9-c
1945 - 14-f
Sayaslipper
1960
Sayajirao
Dusky Slipper
1944 - 3-n
1948 - 22
Jimka
1978
Jim French
1968
Graustark
1963
Ribot
1952
Tenerani
Romanella
1944 - 6-d
1943 - 4-l
Flower Bowl
1952
Alibhai
Flower Bed
1938 - 6-d
1946 - 4-d
Dinner Partner
1959
Tom Fool
1949
Menow
Gaga
1935 - 8-g
1942 - 3-j
Bluehaze
1945
Blue Larkspur
Flaming Swords
1926 - 8-f
1933 - 7
Kastueuse
1970
Kashmir II
1963
Tudor Melody
1956
Tudor Minstrel
Matelda
1944 - 9-c
1947 - 1-n
Queen Of Speed
1950
Blue Train
Bishopscourt
1944 - 3-o
1945 - 9-c
Vertueuse
1961
Verrieres
1953
Palestine
Serre Chaude
1947 - 3-e
1944 - 5-g
Tenebreuse
1949
Teleferique
Macreuse
1934 - 20-a
1938 - 1-l


TesioPower

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Milwaukee Brew: A Sire to Watch?

Milwaukee Brew is not a sire who has generated much conversation so far. Hard as it may be to call one of only three two-in-a-row winners of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap (Lava Man and John Henry being the other two) as flying "under the radar," he is rarely mentioned in the same breath as some of his fellow sires whose three-year-olds are now on the track.

But that could change, if the results from so far this year are any indication. Currently ranked third in earnings on the Second-Crop Sire List, with earnings (as of August 20, 2008) of $1,792,732, his standing so far is a leap above 2007's year-end first-year sire listing, where he finished twenty-first. Even so, he had a respectable 18% winners from all foals last year, double the percentage of Empire Maker, and on better footing than Mineshaft and Sky Mesa--not to mention that he is currently standing for a far cheaper fee than any of those sires. More telling, whereas last year he had no stake-winners, this year he already has three--the most notable being Ginger Brew, winner of this year's Calder Oaks and the second-place finisher (by just a head to Not Bourbon) in the Canadian G1 Queen's Plate. His stud fee is among the cheapest of this year's top twenty (so far), with only Repent ($5,000), D'Wildcat ($6,500), and Smooth Jazz ($3,000) having less expensive advertised fees, along with Yankee Gentleman's listed fee of $7,500.

When one looks at lifetime progeny earnings of second-crop sires, as Thoroughbred Times does, the statistics are just as favorable. Milwaukee Brew is ranked eleventh in lifetime earnings among his contemporaries, with (as of August 20, 2008) lifetime earnings of $2,253,013. To be fair, when one takes the progeny earnings for the top twenty in the Thoroughbred Times listing and divides it by the number of starters for each of them, Milwaukee Brew's ranking drops to thirteenth, with an average earnings per starter of $26,821.58. Still, that ranks about $500 higher than Van Nistelrooy and several others in the top twenty, all of which except Flatter command a higher stud fee.

So what is his Average Earnings Index--that other barometer of sire effectivness? Well…..not great. It is currently 1.35, with a Comparable Index of 1.55 according to the Blood-Horse listing as of August 20, 2008, ranking him at 137 on the list--barely making the cutoff of the top 150 listed. But let's try that other ranking, the APEX ranking, which is described more fully on the Thoroughbred Daily News site (link available only to subscribers of TDN). Recently, APEX creator Bill Oppenheim released his mid-year APEX ratings. (There is a link to a downloadable spreadsheet in the August 13, 2008 edition of the Thoroughbred Daily News.) Here, Milwaukee Brew rates a lowly 0.79 in his ABC index, placing him 549 out of 1096 listed. But here is what is interesting: his 2 year old APEX rating is 0.38, whereas his 3 year old rating is 1.15. Of course, much can be attributed to the success of Ginger Brew this year, but a rise in APEX ratings may just be indicative of a sire whose offspring may be late developers, a bit like himself.

Now, before you automatically jump to the conclusion that at this time of year it is only natural for a second-crop sire to have a higher rating for 3-year-olds than 2-year olds, a look at some of his contemporaries does not necessarily bear that out. Empire Maker's 2-year-olds are rated at 2.87, while his three-years have dipped to 1.89. Proud Citizen--even with the phenomenal success of Proud Spell this year--has a 2YO APEX of 1.68, and a 3YO of 1.21. Macho Uno has a 2YO rating of 1.54 and a 3YO rating of 1.17. To be sure, Harlan's Holiday, Sky Mesa, and several others have had an increase in ranking like Milwaukee Brew. However, among all the second-year sires (those with first foals arriving in 2005) who had a rating above 0.0 for 2 year-olds as well as 3 year-olds, Milwaukee Brew has the highest increase from 2YO APEX to 3YO APEX; that rating from 0.38 to 1.15 represents an increase of 302.6 percent. The next highest? Repent, whose 2YO APEX of 0.81 and 3YO APEX of 1.95 represents an increase of 240.7%. (Yankee Gentleman and Sky Mesa are next on the list, by the way.) While it's far too early to draw too many conclusions for this at the mid-year point, such ratings make perfectly good sense for a sire who himself did not really hit his best stride until he got older. (Although Milwaukee Brew won the Grade 2 Ohio Derby at age 3, his victories in the Santa Anita Handicap came at ages 5 and 6.) Could his offspring develop the same characteristics?

Milwaukee Brew certainly has an intriguing pedigree, as shown below and as created by the Tesiopower software. His most substantial inbreeding is on the male side, as he is sired by the first Breeder's Cup Classic (G1) winner Wild Again, who is inbred 3mX4f to Nearco through his sire Icecapade and 4mX3f to Hyperion. On the other hand his dam, Ask Anita, (a Grade 3 stakes winner), is a complete outcross in her first five generations.

After he won the 2002 Santa Anita Handicap, Thoroughbred Daily News pedigree expert Andrew Caulfield stated that "it would have been no surprise had Milwaukee Brew also proved to be a turf performer" [TDN, March 5, 2002, p. 4, available only to subscribers in their archive section]. Caufield points out his dam and broodmare sire (Wolf Power) were both turf performers, as well as the fact that the bottom half of Wild Again's pedigree features Epsom Derby winners Hyperion, Dante, and Mahmoud. In addition, Wild Again had sired turf performers Free at Last, Wild Event, Narita King O and Wild Zone. One can supplement Mr. Caufield's list with Gigawatt, winner of the Grade 3 Miami Mile Breeders Cup Handicap in 2006, and Aud, winner of the Grade 3 Pucker Up Stakes in 2003. Wild Again was retired from active duty at Three Chimneys Farm in 2004.

This makes a compelling argument for breeding Milwaukee Brew to some proven turf runners to, perhaps, optimize his breeding capability already inherent in his family. His most successful offspring so far, Ginger Brew, who is out of the lightly raced, non-stakes placed Coral Necklace (and whose broodmare sire was the 1982 Horse of the Year Conquistador Cielo who, however, did not win on the turf) won the Calder Oaks on the grass. This is likely courtesy of her Milwaukee Brew side of her pedigree, as her dam's side in the first few generations is notably bereft of significant turf runners. And (dosage haters may want to ignore this sentence) Milwaukee Brew's own dosage profile is more indicative of a turf runner, with a lower than average dosage index and center of distribution, thus in keeping with Roman's research that turf runners in general have lower figures.

Looking at some of Milwaukee Brew's other runners, several have won or placed on the turf: Musical Brew, Mascara, Fire Brewed, Dicey D J, and August Rush. Perhaps his lowered stud fee may attract a few more risk takers out there: he dropped from an advertised fee of $10,000 in last year’s Blood-Horse Stallion Register to his current $7,500 in this year’s. Currently ranked a rather lowly 61st (as of August 20, 2008) on the Blood-Horse listing of leading turf sires when ranked by earnings on the turf, his turf earnings percentage is a respectable 28%--the same percentage as established sires Alphabet Soup, Hennessy, and Elusive Quality. His 13 winners on the turf so far this year is also respectable--enough to rank him 38th on the same listing of sires, which lists the top 150.

Call it a wishful thinking on my part, but here’s hoping that a few more breeders with some solid grass runners in their dam’s pedigrees will consider Milwaukee Brew as an acceptable risk at $7,500. That said, this writer's hunch is that he may dip down in the overall rankings a bit the rest of this year, if only because he does not seem to be getting the graded stakes winners that tilt such rankings in the favor of those sires who manage to accomplish that task. But Milwaukee Brew is shaping up to be a “blue collar” racer who may beget blue collar offspring. As many racing fans know, late developing runners are often tried out on the turf if they fail on the dirt. And that may suit Milwaukee Brew's offspring just fine.

Note: Rankings on sire lists have already changed a bit since this article was composed; data was accurate as of August 20, 2008.

Milwaukee Brew is currently standing at Adena Springs South.

TesioPower Pedigree for Milwaukee Brew

Milwaukee Brew (1997) - M - 20-a
by Wild Again out of Ask Anita by Wolf Power to 6 generations


Wild Again
1980
Icecapade
1969
Nearctic
1954
Nearco
1935
Pharos
1920
Phalaris
Scapa Flow
1913 - 1-i
1914 - 13-e
Nogara
1928
Havresac II
Catnip
1915 - 8-h
1910 - 4-r
Lady Angela
1944
Hyperion
1930
Gainsborough
Selene
1915 - 2-n
1919 - 6-e
Sister Sarah
1930
Abbots Trace
Sarita
1917 - 4-j
1924 - 14-c
Shenanigans
1963
Native Dancer
1950
Polynesian
1942
Unbreakable
Black Polly
1935 - 4-i
1936 - 14-a
Geisha
1943
Discovery
Miyako
1931 - 23-b
1935 - 5-f
Bold Irish
1948
Fighting Fox
1935
Sir Gallahad III
Marguerite
1920 - 16-a
1920 - 4-n
Erin
1927
Transmute
Rosie O'Grady
1921 - 3-n
1915 - 8-c
Bushel-N-peck
1958
Khaled
1943
Hyperion
1930
Gainsborough
1915
Bayardo
Rosedrop
1906 - 10-a
1907 - 2-n
Selene
1919
Chaucer
Serenissima
1900 - 1-g
1913 - 6-e
Eclair
1930
Ethnarch
1922
The Tetrarch
Karenza
1911 - 2-o
1910 - 1-h
Black Ray
1919
Black Jester
Lady Brilliant
1911 - 1-s
1912 - 22-d
Dama II
1950
Dante
1942
Nearco
1935
Pharos
Nogara
1920 - 13-e
1928 - 4-r
Rosy Legend
1931
Dark Legend
Rosy Cheeks
1914 - 9-e
1919 - 3-n
Clovelly
1938
Mahmoud
1933
Blenheim
Mah Mahal
1927 - 1-e
1928 - 9-c
Udaipur
1929
Blandford
Uganda
1919 - 3-o
1921 - 3-e
Ask Anita
1990
Wolf Power
1978
Flirting Around
1971
Round Table
1954
Princequillo
1940
Prince Rose
Cosquilla
1928 - 10-c
1933 - 1-b
Knight's Daughter
1941
Sir Cosmo
Feola
1926 - 6
1933 - 2-f
Happy Flirt
1958
Johns Joy
1946
Bull Dog
My Auntie
1927 - 16-a
1933 - 9-a
Saracen Flirt
1945
Pilate
Knights Gal
1928 - 14-f
1930 - 2-s
Pandora
1970
Casabianca
1961
Never Say Die
1951
Nasrullah
Singing Grass
1940 - 9-c
1944 - 1-n
Abelia
1955
Abernant
Queen Of Peru
1946 - 9-c
1948 - 6-f
Blue Siren
1962
Open Sky
1956
Court Martial
Per Ardua
1942 - 1-p
1941 - 2-u
Alarmist
1955
Djask
Firefighter
1942 - 5-j
1939 - 18
Epanoui
1980
Val De L'Orne
1972
Val De Loir
1959
Vieux Manoir
1947
Brantome
Vieille Maison
1931 - 27-a
1936 - 10-e
Vali
1954
Sunny Boy
Her Slipper
1944 - 16-a
1936 - 5-h
Aglae
1965
Armistice
1959
Worden II
Commemoration
1949 - 13-c
1953 - 9-f
Aglae Grace
1947
Mousson
Agathe
1934 - 16-g
1936 - 11-e
Swalthee
1975
Sword Dancer
1956
Sunglow
1947
Sun Again
Rosern
1939 - 9-f
1927 - 2-n
Highland Fling
1950
By Jimminy
Swing Time
1941 - 20
1935 - 1-o
Amalthee
1964
Right Royal
1958
Owen Tudor
Bastia
1938 - 10-b
1951 - 3-f
Azulene
1956
Ocarina
Alizarine
1947 - 14-c
1939 - 20-a


Dosage Profile: 6-5-7-2-0 (20) DI=2.64 CD=0.75
TesioPower

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Welcome!

Welcome to my page of thoroughbred pedigree musings. As my "About Me" section indicates, I am a fan of thoroughbred racing and not anything close to being a real "pedigree consultant." This site will contain my thoughts on thoroughbred pedigrees in general, and I invite any and all comments. I always wanted to write about pedigrees, and blogging gives me my best venue for doing so. Constructive feedback is always welcome.

I knew I was hooked on pedigrees when, in high school, I used my hard-earned dollars working as a library page, and later a library clerk-typist, to subscribe to both The Blood-Horse and the (then) Thoroughbred Record. Later, I purchased Sire Lines by Abram Hewitt. I wound up earning a B.A. in History and a master's degree in library science. So, I guess the combination of those two degrees with being a thoroughbred racing fan makes my interest in pedigrees a natural. (A second master's a computer information systems came a few years ago.)

As the years went on, I enjoyed reading the debate over such things as Steven Roman's dosage figures, which--I have to say now--I DO endorse, if only because it gives a casual fan such as myself a relatively easy way to spot potential prepotency in a sire. I remember reading Leon Rasmussen's columns in the Daily Racing Form when he talked about dosage using Franco Varola's Typology of the Racehorse as his model, but back in the days when Rasmussen went through an entire pedigree rather than four generations, it seemed impossible to replicate his research. When he adopted Roman's methodology, it put the casual fan in the picture. I know the majority of pedigree enthusiasts usually (and often violently) disagree with Roman's methods, but most pedigree research--it seems to me--is down to one person's opinion, anyway, backed by the racing statistics he or she can find to back them up. To be sure, even I don't agree with all of Roman's choices of chefs-de-race. Ah well, debate is good. And let's face it: dosage figures appear in almost all pedigree-related programs and web sites, like them or not.

While I certainly look at free sites such as Pedigreequery (see list of links) I am a big fan of Simon Morris' TesioPower software. While expensive, it is important to support software development such as this, and Mr. Morris provides excellent customer support. The G1 Goldmine software is another important resource, and their ability to search by specific places in a pedigree (not just entire generations) as well as their "Affinity Matrix" for analyzing potential nicking patterns makes it well worth the money.

Anyway, that's what I use for my research. How about you? I look forward to hearing from you and sharing your opinions.